Can Scotland at last break their New Zealand curse?

Rugby scene
The All Blacks have made three adjustments to the team that beat the Irish team

Autumn Nations Series: Scottish team versus All Blacks

Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, the Scottish capital Date: this weekend Kick-off: 15:10 GMT

Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a international match.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Three years further on, same story. Five more years went by and, indeed, you know the rest.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Rugby action
Darcy Graham was a try-scorer in the 31-23 defeat to New Zealand in the previous encounter

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests recently, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - and keep it there.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? It's over.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.

Jessica Mendez
Jessica Mendez

A passionate historian and travel writer dedicated to uncovering the hidden stories of Italian cultural landmarks.

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